The claim

"It's important to annotation that black men commit almost half of all murders in this country, which is astounding when you take into consideration the fact that they only brand up 12-thirteen per cent of the population."

"James", 26 November 2014

There were angry protests across America this week after a grand jury decided a white police officeholder should not stand trial for the killing of black teenager Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri.

FactCheck has already looked at the statistics on killings by law enforcement officials. Though imperfect, the official figures suggest blacks are disproportionately likely to die at the hands of police.

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Several people have left comments pointing out that this is not necessarily surprising or unfair, since blacks are besides disproportionately likely to exist involved in violent criminal offence in the The states, thereby putting themselves in the firing line.

1 reader, "James", wrote: "It'southward important to note that black men commit nigh one-half of all murders in this land, which is astounding when you take into consideration the fact that they simply make upwardly 12-13 per cent of the population.

"So, given this fact, does it make sense that black men are unduly involved in shootings with the constabulary? Your graph is accordingly proportionate, when you take into consideration the role that the black population plays in, not just murder, only crime in full general."

"Sean" said: "If one group is more likely to be involved in that then they are more than likely to exist killed by the law – then they have nothing to complain about if that is the instance."

Nosotros thought we'd bank check these claims out.

The analysis

It's truthful that around 13 per cent of Americans are black, according to the latest estimates from the US Census Bureau.

And yes, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, black offenders committed 52 per cent of homicides recorded in the data betwixt 1980 and 2008. Merely 45 per cent of the offenders were white. Homicide is a broader category than "murder" but let'due south not dissever hairs.

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Blacks were disproportionately likely to commit homicide and to be the victims. In 2008 the offending rate for blacks was vii times college than for whites and the victimisation rate was half dozen times higher.

As we found yesterday, 93 per cent of black victims were killed by blacks and 84 per cent of white victims were killed by whites.

Alternative statistics from the FBI are more up to date but include many crimes where the killer'due south race is not recorded. These numbers tell a like story.

In 2013, the FBI has black criminals carrying out 38 per cent of murders, compared to 31.1 per cent for whites. The offender'south race was "unknown" in 29.1 per cent of cases.

What about violent crime more generally? FBI arrest rates are i way into this. Over the concluding three years of data – 2011 to 2013 – 38.5 per cent of people arrested for murder, manslaughter, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault were black.

Conspicuously, these figures are problematic. We're talking almost arrests not convictions, and high black arrest rates could exist taken as evidence that the police are racist.

Police corral protesters before making mass arrests in Los Angeles, following Monday's grand jury decision in the shooting of Brown

Only academics take noted that the proportion of blackness suspects arrested by the constabulary tends to match closely the proportion of offenders identified as blackness past victims in the National Crime Victimization Survey.

This doesn't back up the idea that the police force are unfairly discriminating against the black population when they brand arrests.

And so why are blackness offenders – and young black men in particular – over-represented in America'southward criminal offence statistics?

Judging from online comments, in that location is a broad spectrum of views on this, from unapologetic racism to militant refusal to blame the problem on anything but historic white racism.

Some criminologists think nosotros could be simply confusing race for poverty or inequality: black people tend to offend more because they tend to be more disadvantaged, living in poorer urban areas with less access to public services, and and so on.

If you control for deprivation, people of unlike races ought to be similarly predisposed to commit law-breaking. Or that'south the theory, at least.

There is a lot of research in this expanse, but a lot of it is contradictory.

This written report of violent crime in deprived neighbourhoods in Cleveland, Ohio, found that reductions in poverty led to reductions in the crime rate in exactly the same way in predominantly black and white areas, suggesting poverty, not race, is the biggest factor.

Other studies get unlike results.

All sociologists take suffered from the same basic problem: finding urban white communities that are as disadvantaged as the poorest black neighbourhoods, so that yous can get a off-white comparison.

Some thinkers play down the importance of poverty in favour of the "violent subculture theory".

This is the idea that some blackness communities, for some reason, accept adult cultural values that are more tolerant of criminal offence and violence.

Some commentators on the unrest in Ferguson – generally right-wing, though not all white – seem to favour this idea, merely naturally information technology remains highly controversial.

The verdict

There is testify in the official police-recorded figures that black Americans are more likely to commit sure types of crime than people of other races.

While it would be naïve to advise that there is no racism in the The states criminal justice system, victim reports don't back up the idea that this is because of mass discrimination.

Higher poverty rates among various urban black communities might explicate the difference in crime rates, although the evidence is mixed.

There are few simple answers and links between offense and race are likely to remain the subject of bitter statement.

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